‘A Critical Scenario’: Hostilities on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Supplies.

The ripple effects of a conflict being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now reaching India's households.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran impede energy transports through the Strait of Hormuz, stocks of cooking gas are tightening across India, compelling restaurants to cut menus, reduce operating times and in some cases close completely.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing queues outside fuel suppliers across Indian cities and towns as worries over fuel supplies grow. Restaurant kitchens appear the worst hit: the biggest crunch is in commercial eateries.

"Conditions are critical. Kitchen fuel simply is unavailable," says a representative of the a major restaurant body.

Most food outlets run either on commercial LPG cylinders or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the shortages are now being felt across the country. "Many restaurants have closed - some in northern India, many in the south. People are switching to coal and wood and electric cookers to keep food preparation going."

Regional Impact

In a western metro, local news say up to a significant portion of hotels and restaurants are already operating at reduced capacity as business fuel stocks dwindle. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some eateries say their gas stocks have dwindled with little backup. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and no food items - it is nothing less than pathetic. Commerce will take a hit," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant operators are seeking alternatives. "Food options are being cut, some are cutting lunch service and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are fluctuating as supplies ebb and flow. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a dynamic scenario."

Retailers note a spike in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Government Stance

Yet, the government states there is sufficient stock.

India has more than 30 crore domestic LPG users and officials say stocks are being reallocated to households as geopolitical strain from the war in the Gulf ripple through energy markets.

Approximately six out of ten of India's LPG is imported, and about 90% of those consignments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now effectively closed by the hostilities.

The oil ministry says that it directed refineries to maximise LPG output for home needs, enhancing domestic production by about 25%. Non-domestic supply is being reserved for critical services such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "just and open".

"Unnecessary hoarding and accumulation has been sparked by rumors. The standard supply timeline for domestic LPG remains about 60 hours," says a senior official.

Spreading Anxiety

Now the anxiety is moving beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of two-wheelers outside a gas outlet. "The panic is real," the text reads.

According to reports from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be premature.

India imports almost all of its oil. Around half of its crude oil imports - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the deficit could be partly made up by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a industry commentator.

Based on shipping data and industry information, increased Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, narrowing India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The primary concern is LPG, analysts say.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through Hormuz.

Refineries can adjust processes to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only lift domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be moderately reduced through varied suppliers. Processed petroleum stocks remains relatively comfortable. Kitchen fuel stocks is the key factor to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the concern on the ground is not just tight supply but uneven distribution - and the familiar spectre of hoarding.

An industry representative claims price gouging.

"Retailers are exploiting the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and sold at a premium."

For now, India's energy imports may be protected by worldwide shipping. But in restaurants across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next cylinder.