A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
