Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.

Significant Hurdles in the Selection Process

A number of members on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are anxious to avert any future leadership challenge.

The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.