Moving from Reluctant Respect to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Maduro.

A unexpected operation on the capital in the dead of night, ending with the seizure of the country's president. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Russia once planned, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed competently,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for four years.”

These observations have fed a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, determines results.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in advancing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than international law.”