Amid the immense confusion regarding the US strikes on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – they set a truly chilling precedent.
The United States carries a troubling legacy of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation saw its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.
The decision to unilaterally attack another independent nation and abduct its leader – mere days after he stated a desire for negotiations – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.
Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has indicated that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy RodrĂguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner MarĂa Corina Machado as a credible successor.
However, Ms RodrĂguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the headless administration are considerably more radical.
A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.
He holds the view that the America's power allows it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this most recent venture “will pay for itself”.
George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or congressional approval; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to destroy them.
Put aside the signal this transmits to global powers like Russia and China, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will surely embolden additional military gambits.
It is widely rejected the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.
The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been shockingly muted. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.
Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could yet press him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.
We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. The international community may live to repent if they fail to speak up today, considering the potential next target.
A tech enthusiast and business strategist with over a decade of experience in digital transformation and startup consulting.